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Do consistent Pegs matter? Deviations of actual exchange rate regimes form announced exchange rate regimes and currency crises
https://kobe-cufs.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/1212
https://kobe-cufs.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/1212ce3be608-1c71-40fa-8970-4ea31c023373
| Item type | 研究報告書 / Research Paper(1) | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 公開日 | 2008-02-20 | |||||
| タイトル | ||||||
| タイトル | Do consistent Pegs matter? Deviations of actual exchange rate regimes form announced exchange rate regimes and currency crises | |||||
| 言語 | ||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | Exchange rate regimes | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | currency crises | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | consistent pegs | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | fear of announcing a peg | |||||
| キーワード | ||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||
| 主題Scheme | Other | |||||
| 主題 | speculative attacks | |||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_18ws | |||||
| 資源タイプ | research report | |||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||
| アクセス権 | metadata only access | |||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_14cb | |||||
| 著者 |
Esaka, Taro
× Esaka, Taro |
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| 著者所属機関 | ||||||
| 値 | Kobe City University of Foreign studies | |||||
| 雑誌名 |
en : Kobe city university of foreign studies working paper series 号 32, p. 1-30, 発行日 2008-02-20 |
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| 出版者 | ||||||
| 出版者 | Institute for foreign studies Kobe city university of foreign studies | |||||
| 抄録 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Abstract | |||||
| 内容記述 | This paper uses probit models to empirically investigate whether deviations of actual exchange rate regimes from announced exchange rate regimes affect the occurrence of currency crises in 84 countries over the period 1980-2001. We use the relationship between the de jure IMF classification and the de facto Reinhart and Rogoff (2004) classification as an indicator of the discrepancy between announced regimes and actual regimes. The main results are as follows: (1) countries with a “fear of announcing a peg” policy (i.e., the policy that countries actually adopt pegged regimes without actually claiming to have pegged regimes) have a significantly higher probability of currency crises than countries with consistent pegs (i.e., the policy that countries claim to have pegged regimes and actually adopt the announced pegged regimes);(2) countries with a “fear of pegging” policy(i.e., the situation in which countries actually adopt floating regimes but claim to have pegged regimes) have a significantly higher probability of currency crises than those with consistent pegs;(3) countries with consistent floats(i.e., the policy that countries claim to have floating regimes and actually adopt the announced floating regimes) have a significantly higher probability of currency crises than those with consistent pegs; and(4) countries with consistent pegs have the lowest statistically significant risk of currency crises as compared with other exchange rate policies. These results are robust to a wide variety of samples. Hence, we can reasonably conclude that countries that in fact maintain announced pegged regimes are least prone to currency crises because they can enhance greater credibility in their currencies by sustaining their commitment to pegged regimes. | |||||
| 分類 | ||||||
| 値 | JEL classification:F31,F33 | |||||
| 備考 | ||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||
| 内容記述 | 文部科学省科学研究費（若手研究(B)）2005年度～2007年度、研究課題番号：17730166 文部科学省科学研究費（若手研究(B)）2008年度～2009年度、研究課題番号：20730218 |
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| 関連サイト | ||||||
| 表示名 | KAKEN : 科学研究費助成事業データベース | |||||
| URL | http://kaken.nii.ac.jp/d/p/17730166.ja.html | |||||
| 関連サイト | ||||||
| 表示名 | KAKEN : 科学研究費助成事業データベース | |||||
| URL | http://kaken.nii.ac.jp/d/p/20730218.ja.html | |||||
